Global and regional climate model simulations focusing on Central Europe in the 18th–20th centuries in comparison to observed and reconstructed climate

Name of the project: 209/11/0956 Global and regional climate model simulations focusing on Central Europe in the 18th–20th centuries in comparison to observed and reconstructed climate

Provider: Czech Science Foundation

Resolution period: 2011–2015

Applicant: Prof. RNDr. Rudolf Brázdil, DrSc. (Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno)

Co-applicants: RNDr. Aleš Farda, Ph.D. (Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague), Mgr. Jiří Mikšovský, Ph.D. (Department of Meteorology and Environment Protection, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University in Prague)

Cooperators: Prof. RNDr. Petr Dobrovolný, CSc. (Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno), RNDr. Eva Holtanová, Ph.D. (Department of Meteorology and Environment Protection, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University in Prague), Mgr. Petr Kolář (Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno), RNDr. Petr Pišoft, Ph.D. (Department of Meteorology and Environment Protection, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University in Prague), Mgr. Petr Skalák (Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague), Mgr. Petr Štěpánek, Ph.D. (Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Brno)

Aims of the project:

The essential parts of the project are the global and regional climate model integrations focusing on Central Europe in the 18th-20th centuries and their comparison to temperature and precipitation series reconstructed from instrumental measurements, documentary evidence and natural proxy data.

The project research will address following questions:

  • how reliably can the climate of the 18th-19th centuries be reconstructed from existing measurements and proxies?
  • can the confrontation of past climate model simulations and time series reconstructed from observed data help to improve models? And in case of positive answer, in which aspects and to what extent?
  • to which extent are regional and global climate models capable to reproduce temporal and spatial variability of hydrometeorological extremes?
  • to which extent is it possible to use the ensemble of simulations to fill in the missing values in time series of natural proxies or documentary data?
  • what is the capability of the GCM and RCM to reproduce low and high frequency variability of temperature and precipitation series in Central Europe?
  • what are differences in manifestations of natural and anthropogenic climate-forming factors in model outputs and temperature and precipitation (reconstructed and measured) data?